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Dr Alexandre Köberle is an independent researcher focusing on long-term scenarios of socio-environmental change, with special focus on nexus approaches to explore transitions to alternative sustainable development futures. His interdisciplinary work uses mathematical models to develop plausible scenarios useful for stakeholders to not only enable the transition but also to identify risks and opportunities for improved human welfare and environmental sustainability. He is particularly interested in transformative systems approaches exploring nexuses across sectors and disciplines such as nature-food-finance or climate-land-energy-water and emerging trade-offs and synergies with sustainable and inclusive development objectives. Alex holds a multidisciplinary scientific background, including a DSc in Energy Planning from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ; 2018), a MSc in Environmental Resource Management from Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (2013) and a BSc in Plant Biology and Ecology from the University of California Davis (1994). Absent from academia between 1995 and 2012, he worked as a consultant for environmental organizations, a documentary filmmaker and musician, and ran his own company producing conferences and corporate events for Silicon Valley clients, including financial institutions. Seeing the absence of science-based sustainability in industry, he decided to return to academia in 2009 to work on policy relevant environmental research. Since receiving his MSc in 2013, he has worked at several leading research institutions in Europe working on transition scenarios and modelling to address the climate and nature loss crises, targeting the science-policy and science-business interface. After his doctorate, Alex spent five years as a Researcher at Imperial College London (ICL) after time at prestigious European institutions like the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). Currently, he is a Research Fellow at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), an Honorary Senior Research Fellow at ICL, and a Guest Researcher at Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL) at the University of Lisbon. He also leads several independent research projects for private institutions and environmental organizations. He has a long history of working with integrated assessment models (IAMs) and transition scenarios, starting during his MSc internship and subsequent research at PBL, which developed during his doctorate at UFRJ with periodic stays at IIASA. As a Research Fellow at PIK working with the MAgPIE agriculture and land use modelling framework to explore food systems and nature-positive transition scenarios. He currently leads two projects, one aiming to inform measures to scale up Natural Climate Solutions (NCS) and the other to develop Food Systems Development Pathways (FSDP) at the global level and for three countries, of which he lead the Brazil country study. In 2020, he became a Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for Climate Finance and Investment (CCFI) at ICL Business School where he currently leads the research stream on Nature, Food and Biodiversity finance. He participated in several Horizon Framework projects, was a principal investigator on two projects funded by UK research councils to explore climate and nature finance (FlowCCA and FiNaClim-SD), and has designed and delivered several executive education courses on climate finance to financial institutions including the Singapore Green Finance Centre (SGFC). Since 2019, he contributed to the IPCC 6th Assessment Report as a Lead Author (LA) in WG3 Chapter 1 and Technical Summary and contributed to an inter-working group text box on effect of climate impacts on economic projections. In UNEP’s GEO6, he was a Lead Author in the two chapters assessing plausible futures towards sustainable development goals (SDGs).
Identification

Personal identification

Full name
Alexandre Köberle

Citation names

  • Köberle, Alexandre
  • Alexandre C. Köberle

Author identifiers

Ciência ID
CF1A-002B-641E
ORCID iD
0000-0003-0328-4750

Websites

Knowledge fields

  • Natural sciences - Earth and Environmental Sciences - Climatic Research

Languages

Language Speaking Reading Writing Listening Peer-review
Portuguese (Mother tongue)
English Proficiency (C2) Proficiency (C2) Proficiency (C2) Proficiency (C2) Proficiency (C2)
Spanish; Castilian Proficiency (C2) Proficiency (C2) Upper intermediate (B2) Proficiency (C2) Advanced (C1)
French Upper intermediate (B2) Intermediate (B1) Intermediate (B1) Upper intermediate (B2) Elementary (A2)
German Intermediate (B1) Elementary (A2) Elementary (A2) Elementary (A2) Beginner (A1)
Education
Degree Classification
2014/03/01 - 2018/06/04
Concluded
DSc Programa de Planejamento Energético (Doctor of Philosophy)
Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
"IMPLEMENTATION OF LAND USE IN AN ENERGY SYSTEM MODEL TO STUDY THE LONG-TERM IMPACTS OF BIOENERGY IN BRAZIL AND ITS SENSITIVITY TO THE CHOICE OF AGRICULTURAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION FACTORS" (THESIS/DISSERTATION)
2012/08/01 - 2013/06/01
Concluded
MSc Environmental Resource Management (Master)
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Netherlands
"CSP Development and Energy Policy in Brazil. Using Scenario Analysis and the TIMER Energy Model to Assess the Pos-sible Future Contribution of Concentrated Solar Power" (THESIS/DISSERTATION)
1991/01/05 - 1994/06/15
Concluded
Bachelor of Sciences (Bachelor)
Major in Biological Sciences
University of California Davis, United States
Affiliation

Science

Category
Host institution
Employer
2022/09/01 - Current Researcher (Research) Universidade de Lisboa Instituto Dom Luiz, Portugal
2021/06/01 - Current Researcher (Research) Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK) e V, Germany
2018/01/01 - Current Researcher (Research) Imperial College London, United Kingdom
Imperial College London Grantham Institute, United Kingdom
2014/03/01 - 2019/01/31 Researcher (Research) Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro Fundação COPPETEC, Brazil
2016 - 2017 Researcher (Research) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria
2013/02/01 - 2015/01/31 Researcher (Research) Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving, Netherlands

Teaching in Higher Education

Category
Host institution
Employer
2023/09/01 - Current Invited Associate Professor (University Teacher) Universidade NOVA de Lisboa NOVA School of Business and Economics, Portugal
Universidade NOVA de Lisboa NOVA School of Business and Economics, Portugal
Projects

Contract

Designation Funders
2023/06/01 - Current Climate Resilience Indicators for Knowledge-based Innovation and Technological change in agriculture CRIKIT
2022.01729.PTDC
Researcher
Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
Ongoing
2022/12/01 - Current WorldTrans - TRANSPARENT ASSESSMENTS FOR REAL PEOPLE
Principal investigator
Universidade de Lisboa Instituto Dom Luiz, Portugal
European Commission
Ongoing
2022/02/01 - Current The Finance-Nature-Climate nexus in the context of Sustainable Development (FiNaClim-SD)
Principal investigator
Imperial College London Grantham Institute, United Kingdom
UK Research and Innovation
Concluded
2018 - 2023 Paris Reinforce
Researcher
Horizon 2020, Belgium
Concluded
2015 - 2020 CD-LINKS - Linking Climate and Development Policies – Leveraging International Networks and Knowledge Sharing
Researcher
Horizon 2020, Belgium
Concluded
2016 - 2019 COMMIT - Climate pOlicy assessment and Mitigation Modeling to Integrate national and global Transition pathways
Researcher
Directorate-General for Climate Action, Belgium
Concluded
2014 - 2016 Climate Mitigation Responses in Brazil
GEF project ID 4254
Researcher
Outputs

Publications

Conference paper
  1. Carvalho, F.; Portugal-Pereira, J.; Koberle, A.; Szklo, A.. "Biojet fuel in Brazil: Technological routes and feedstock availability". 2016.
Journal article
  1. Ajay Gambhir; Shivika Mittal; Robin D. Lamboll; Neil Grant; Dan Bernie; Laila Gohar; Adam Hawkes; et al. "Adjusting 1.5 degree C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information". Nature Communications (2023): https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-40673-4.
    10.1038/s41467-023-40673-4
  2. Dirk-Jan van de Ven; Shivika Mittal; Ajay Gambhir; Robin D. Lamboll; Haris Doukas; Sara Giarola; Adam Hawkes; et al. "A multimodel analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges". Nature Climate Change (2023): https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01661-0.
    10.1038/s41558-023-01661-0
  3. Alexandre C Köberle; Gireesh Shrimali; Shivika Mittal; Abhinav Jindal; Charles Donovan. "Financial risks to coal value chain from a cost-conscious shift to renewables in India". Environmental Research Letters (2022): https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca036.
    10.1088/1748-9326/aca036
  4. Shridhar Kulkarni; Kendall McKenzie; Andries Hof; Geanderson Ambrósio; Oreane Edelenbosch; Alexandre C. Köberle; Jeroen van Rijn; Detlef van Vuuren. "Investment needs to achieve SDGs: An overview". PLOS Sustainability and Transformation (2022): https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pstr.0000020.
    10.1371/journal.pstr.0000020
  5. A. Nikas; K. Koasidis; A.C. Köberle; G. Kourtesi; H. Doukas. "A comparative study of biodiesel in Brazil and Argentina: An integrated systems of innovation perspective". Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 156 (2022): 112022-112022. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2021.112022.
    10.1016/j.rser.2021.112022
  6. Alexandre C. Köberle; Toon Vandyck; Celine Guivarch; Nick Macaluso; Valentina Bosetti; Ajay Gambhir; Massimo Tavoni; Joeri Rogelj. "Publisher Correction: The cost of mitigation revisited". Nature Climate Change 12 3 (2022): 298-298. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01252-x.
    10.1038/s41558-021-01252-x
  7. Alexandre C. Köberle. "Food security in climate mitigation scenarios". Nature Food (2022): https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00443-1.
    10.1038/s43016-021-00443-1
  8. Alexandre C. Köberle; Vassilis Daioglou; Pedro Rochedo; André F. P. Lucena; Alexandre Szklo; Shinichiro Fujimori; Thierry Brunelle; et al. "Can global models provide insights into regional mitigation strategies? A diagnostic model comparison study of bioenergy in Brazil". Climatic Change 170 1-2 (2022): http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03236-4.
    10.1007/s10584-021-03236-4
  9. Ajay Gambhir; Mel George; Haewon McJeon; Nigel W. Arnell; Daniel Bernie; Shivika Mittal; Alexandre C. Köberle; et al. "Near-term transition and longer-term physical climate risks of greenhouse gas emissions pathways". Nature Climate Change (2022): https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01236-x.
    10.1038/s41558-021-01236-x
  10. Samuel Stevenson; Alexandra Collins; Neil Jennings; Alexandre C. Köberle; Felix Laumann; Anthony A. Laverty; Paolo Vineis; Jeremy Woods; Ajay Gambhir. "A hybrid approach to identifying and assessing interactions between climate action (SDG13) policies and a range of SDGs in a UK context". Discover Sustainability 2 1 (2021): https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-021-00051-w.
    10.1007/s43621-021-00051-w
  11. Alexandre C. Köberle; Toon Vandyck; Celine Guivarch; Nick Macaluso; Valentina Bosetti; Ajay Gambhir; Massimo Tavoni; Joeri Rogelj. "The cost of mitigation revisited". Nature Climate Change (2021): https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01203-6.
    10.1038/s41558-021-01203-6
  12. Samuel Stevenson; Alexandra Collins; Neil Jennings; Alexandre C. Köberle; Felix Laumann; Anthony A. Laverty; Paolo Vineis; Jeremy Woods; Ajay Gambhir. "Correction to: A hybrid approach to identifying and assessing interactions between climate action (SDG13) policies and a range of SDGs in a UK context". Discover Sustainability (2021): https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-021-00061-8.
    10.1007/s43621-021-00061-8
  13. Alexandre C. Köberle; Pedro R. R. Rochedo; André F. P. Lucena; Alexandre Szklo; Roberto Schaeffer. "Brazil’s emission trajectories in a well-below 2 °C world: the role of disruptive technologies versus land-based mitigation in an already low-emission energy system". Climatic Change 162 4 (2020): 1823-1842. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02856-6.
    10.1007/s10584-020-02856-6
  14. Adriano Vinca; Simon Parkinson; Edward Byers; Peter Burek; Zarrar Khan; Volker Krey; Fabio A. Diuana; et al. "The NExus Solutions Tool (NEST) v1.0: an open platform for optimizing multi-scale energy–water–land system transformations". Geoscientific Model Development 13 3 (2020): 1095-1121. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1095-2020.
    10.5194/gmd-13-1095-2020
  15. "The Value of BECCS in IAMs: a Review". Current Sustainable/Renewable Energy Reports (2019): http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40518-019-00142-3.
    10.1007/s40518-019-00142-3
  16. "An inter-model assessment of the role of direct air capture in deep mitigation pathways". Nature Communications (2019): http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10842-5.
    10.1038/s41467-019-10842-5
  17. Alexandre C. Köberle; Joana Portugal-Pereira; Bruno Cunha; Rafael Garaffa; André F. P. Lucena; Alexandre Szklo; Roberto Schaeffer. "Brazilian ethanol expansion subject to limitations". Nature Climate Change 9 3 (2019): 209-210. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0422-z.
    10.1038/s41558-019-0422-z
  18. Fragkos, P.; Fragkiadakis, K.; Paroussos, L.; Pierfederici, R.; Vishwanathan, S.S.; Köberle, A.C.; Iyer, G.; He, C.-M.; Oshiro, K.. "Coupling national and global models to explore policy impacts of NDCs". Energy Policy 118 (2018): 462-473. http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-85045418920&partnerID=MN8TOARS.
    10.1016/j.enpol.2018.04.002
  19. Portugal-Pereira, J.; Koberle, A.; Lucena, A.F.P.; Rochedo, P.R.R.; Império, M.; Carsalade, A.M.; Schaeffer, R.; Rafaj, P.. "Interactions between global climate change strategies and local air pollution: lessons learnt from the expansion of the power sector in Brazil". Climatic Change 148 1-2 (2018): 293-309. http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-85045903830&partnerID=MN8TOARS.
    10.1007/s10584-018-2193-3
  20. "The threat of political bargaining to climate mitigation in Brazil". Nature Clim. Change (2018): https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0213-y.
    10.1038/s41558-018-0213-y
  21. "Are conventional energy megaprojects competitive? Suboptimal decisions related to cost overruns in Brazil.". Energy Policy 122 (2018): 689-700.
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.08.021
  22. Chávez-Rodríguez, M.; Varela, D.; Rodrigues, F.; Salvagno, J.B.; Köberle, A.C.; Vasquez-Arroyo, E.; Raineri, R.; Rabinovich, G.. "The role of LNG and unconventional gas in the future natural gas markets of Argentina and Chile". Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering 45 (2017): 584-598. http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-85021634257&partnerID=MN8TOARS.
    10.1016/j.jngse.2017.06.014
  23. Da Silveira Bezerra, P.B.; Callegari, C.L.; Ribas, A.; Lucena, A.F.P.; Portugal-Pereira, J.; Koberle, A.; Szklo, A.; Schaeffer, R.. "The power of light: Socio-economic and environmental implications of a rural electrification program in Brazil". Environmental Research Letters 12 9 (2017): http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-85030787760&partnerID=MN8TOARS.
    10.1088/1748-9326/aa7bdd
  24. Köberle, A.C.; Gernaat, D.E.H.J.; van Vuuren, D.P.. "Assessing current and future techno-economic potential of concentrated solar power and photovoltaic electricity generation". Energy (2015): http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-84937485475&partnerID=MN8TOARS.
    10.1016/j.energy.2015.05.145
  25. Herreras Martínez, S.; Koberle, A.; Rochedo, P.; Schaeffer, R.; Lucena, A.; Szklo, A.; Ashina, S.; van Vuuren, D.P.. "Possible energy futures for Brazil and Latin America in conservative and stringent mitigation pathways up to 2050". Technological Forecasting and Social Change 98 (2015): 186-210. http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-84941168201&partnerID=MN8TOARS.
    10.1016/j.techfore.2015.05.006
Preprint
  1. Dirk-Jan van de Ven; shivika Mittal; Ajay Gambhir; Haris Doukas; Sara Giarola; Adam Hawkes; Konstantinos Koasidis; et al. "A multi-model analysis of post-Glasgow climate action and feasibility gap". 2022. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2319580/v1.
    10.21203/rs.3.rs-2319580/v1

Other

Other output
  1. Can global models provide insights into regional mitigation strategies? A diagnostic model comparison study of bioenergy in Brazil. 2021. Alexandre C Köberle; Vassilis Daioglou; Pedro Rochedo; André F. P. Lucena; Alexandre Szklo; Shinichiro Fujimori; Thierry Brunelle; et al. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-455926/v1.
    10.21203/rs.3.rs-455926/v1
  2. The Nexus Solutions Tool (NEST): An open platform for optimizing multi-scale energy-water-land system transformations. 2019. Adriano Vinca; Simon Parkinson; Edward Byers; Peter Burek; Zarrar Khan; Volker Krey; Fabio A. Diuana; et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-134.
    10.5194/gmd-2019-134
Activities

Course / Discipline taught

Academic session Degree Subject (Type) Institution / Organization
2022/09/01 - Current Climate Finance Climate Finance (Mestrado) Universidade NOVA de Lisboa NOVA School of Business and Economics, Portugal
Distinctions

Other distinction

2018 Lead Author IPCC AR6
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Germany
2016 Lead Author GEO6
United Nations Environment Programme, Kenya